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PI

P10, Inc. (PX)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record Q4 revenue of $85.0M, up 35% YoY; Adjusted EBITDA $42.9M (+40% YoY); FRE margin ~50% supported by elevated catch-up fees and direct strategy mix .
  • FPAUM reached $25.7B (+10% YoY) with $905M gross fundraising/deployment in Q4 offset by $152M stepdowns/expirations; Bonaccord II closed at $1.6B, driving outsized catch-up fees .
  • 2025 guidance: ≥$4B gross fundraising, double-digit revenue growth ex catch-up, core fee rate ~103 bps, FRE margins mid-40s (modestly lower with Qualitas mix), stepdowns/expirations 5–7% of FPAUM .
  • Capital return: 815,327 shares repurchased in Q4 at $12.72; new $40M buyback authorization; dividend maintained at $0.035 per share; cash $67.5M, debt $325M, $175M facility availability .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “P10 delivered record financial performance in the fourth quarter, capping off a remarkable year… We also exceeded our 2024 fundraising guidance by over a billion dollars” .
  • FRE margin ~50% in Q4 with Fee-Related Revenue +37% YoY; Fully diluted ANI/share $0.30 (+44% YoY) .
  • Strategic progress: Bonaccord II final close at $1.6B; programmatic M&A process and pending Qualitas acquisition to expand EMEA distribution, data, and NAV lending capabilities .

What Went Wrong

  • Elevated Q4 catch-up fees (~$18.9M) are episodic and unlikely to repeat; 2025 catch-up fees expected to decline to ~$4–$5M, lowering fee rate to ~103 bps from 2024’s 107 bps ex catch-up .
  • Mix shift toward newer, faster-growing strategies and Qualitas will exert modest downward pressure on near-term FRE margins (mid-40s vs ~50% out-year target) .
  • Continued stepdowns/expirations expected at 5–7% of FPAUM in 2025, with ~2/3 in 1H25, constraining net FPAUM growth pace .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$71.1 $74.2 $85.0
Fee-Related Revenue ($USD Millions)$68.3 $72.9 $85.0
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$35.4 $35.3 $42.9
GAAP Net Income ($USD Millions)$7.4 $1.3 $5.7
Fully Diluted GAAP EPS ($)$0.06 $0.01 $0.05
Fully Diluted ANI per share ($)$0.24 $0.26 $0.30
Catch-up Fees ($USD Millions)$6.0 $6.0 $18.9

Margins (explicitly disclosed):

Margin MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %48% ~50.5%
FRE Margin %48% 50.2%

Segment activity and FPAUM composition:

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024
Private Equity Solutions – gross fundraising/deployment ($USD Millions)$1,100 $712
Private Credit Solutions – gross fundraising/deployment ($USD Millions)$220 $165
Venture Capital Solutions – gross fundraising/deployment ($USD Millions)$105 $28
Total FPAUM ($USD Billions)$24.9 $25.7
FPAUM Composition – Primary (%)56% (Q2 base) 54% (Q4)
FPAUM Composition – Direct & Co-Invest (%)37% (Q2 base) 40% (Q4)
FPAUM Composition – Secondaries (%)7% (Q2 base) 6% (Q4)

KPIs and balance sheet/capital return:

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Average Fee Rate (total, bps)115 119 133 (105 ex catch-up)
Shares Repurchased (Units; Avg Price)1,533,800; $8.12 609,300; $10.15 815,327; $12.72
Dividend per Share ($)$0.035 $0.035 $0.035
Cash and Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)n/a$61.0 $67.5
Debt Outstanding ($USD Millions)$325 (term loan) $325 $325
Credit Facility Availability ($USD Millions)$175 (post-refi) $175 $175

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Gross Fundraising ($USD Billions)FY 2024$2.5 (provided Feb 2024) Actual $3.8 Beat
Gross Fundraising ($USD Billions)FY 2025n/a≥$4.0 New/raised vs 2024
Revenue GrowthFY 2025n/aDouble-digit, ex direct/secondaries catch-up; includes Qualitas post-close New
Core Fee Rate (bps)FY 2025107 in 2024 ~103 (fewer catch-up fees) Lower
Catch-up Fees ($USD Millions)FY 2025n/a~$4–$5 Lower
FRE Margin %Near/intermediate termMid-40s (Investor Day) Mid-40s; Qualitas modestly lowers 2025 Maintained, with mix headwind
FRE Margin %Longer term~50% “out years” (Investor Day) ~50% “out years” Maintained
Stepdowns/Expirations (% of FPAUM)FY 2025In line with history5–7%; ~2/3 in 1H25 Maintained clarity
Fully Taxed ANI per shareFY 2025 reportingn/aWill begin reporting in 2025 New
DividendOngoing$0.035/quarter $0.035 declared for Mar 20, 2025 Maintained
Share Repurchase AuthorizationCurrent~$3.5M remaining at Q4-end +$40M added (~$43.5M total) Raised

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 (prior)Q3 (prior)Q4 (current)Trend
Fundraising momentum$844M gross; fee rate 115 bps Record $1.4B gross; exceeded $2.5B FY guidance YTD Q4 $905M; FY $3.8B; 2025 ≥$4B Strong, sustained growth
Fee rate and catch-up fees115 bps; catch-up $6M 119 bps; catch-up $6M 133 bps total; 105 ex catch-up; catch-up $18.9M; 2025 ex catch-up ~103 bps Elevated in Q4, normalizing in 2025
FRE margin trajectoryn/aMid-40s near-term, ~50% longer-term (Investor Day) Mid-40s in 2025; Qualitas modest headwind; ~50% longer-term Stable guidance, mix headwind
M&A pipeline and QualitasCredit facility upsized to $500M Announced Qualitas Funds acquisition On track to close Q1; synergies in data, wrappers, NAV lending Integration-ready
SMAs and product wrappersn/a~$200M SMAs raised; early focus Continued build under Client Solutions; focus across RIA/HNW/institutional channels Expanding
Capital returnBuybacks $1.5M shares; dividend $0.035 Buybacks 609k shares; dividend $0.035 Buybacks 815k shares; +$40M authorization; dividend $0.035 Increasing buyback capacity

Management Commentary

  • CEO on performance: “P10 delivered record financial performance in the fourth quarter… Our investment strategies carried momentum… achieving $905 million in gross new fee-paying AUM” .
  • Margin framework: “We see FRE margins expanding from our current near and intermediate-term target of the mid-40s percent to closer to 50% in the out years” .
  • 2025 outlook: “For 2025, we expect gross fundraising of at least $4 billion… We expect double-digit [revenue] growth, excluding direct and secondary catch-up fees” .
  • Qualitas synergies: “Real know-how in how to design products and wrappers in Europe… opportunity to combine [their] relationships… with our core credit underwriting expertise [NAV lending]” .
  • CFO on catch-up impact: “Direct and secondary catch-up fees incrementally increased ANI per share by around $0.07 per share” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Fund priorities: 19 commingled funds planned in 2025, including RCP co-invest, secondaries, primaries; credit strategies; Bonaccord momentum; 4 Qualitas funds post-close .
  • SMAs and channels: Focus on SMAs, rated feeder funds, co-mingled single-point offerings under Client Solutions across RIA/HNW/institutional channels; disclosures by product type will be selective .
  • M&A pipeline: Programmatic approach with active opportunities in private credit/direct lending/asset-backed; Qualitas expands European opportunities .
  • Fee rate normalization: 2024 elevated catch-ups drove 107 bps; 2025 catch-ups ~$4–$5M with core fee rate ~103 bps, consistent with history .
  • FRE margin path: Mid-40s near-term with distribution investments and strategy mix; Qualitas modest headwind; longer-term ~50% with operating leverage .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for Q4 2024 were unavailable at time of analysis due to data access limits; consequently, explicit vs-consensus comparisons are omitted. Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable.

Where estimates may need to adjust:

  • Normalize for lower catch-up fees in 2025 (fee rate ~103 bps) and modest margin pressure from Qualitas mix; incorporate ≥$4B fundraising and double-digit revenue growth ex catch-up per guidance .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q4 strength was partly driven by outsized catch-up fees (Bonaccord II timing), lifting fee rate and margins; expect normalization in 2025 with core fee rate ~103 bps and mid-40s FRE margins .
  • Fundraising engine remains robust (FY $3.8B; 2025 ≥$4B), with diversified products across PE, credit, and venture, plus incremental EMEA reach via Qualitas .
  • Margin trajectory: near-term mid-40s given mix and investment in distribution; longer-term path to ~50% intact via operating leverage as assets scale .
  • Capital return is a tangible support: increased buyback authorization (~$43.5M total available) and steady dividend ($0.035), alongside liquidity ($67.5M cash; $175M undrawn) .
  • Watch Q1/Q2 cadence: stepdowns/expirations (5–7% of FPAUM; ~2/3 in 1H25) and timing of closings may drive intra-year variability in revenue and margins .
  • Strategic upside: NAV lending in Europe, product wrapper expertise, and data integration from Qualitas can expand distribution and cross-selling; Bonaccord III potential timing discussed as deployment advances .
  • Trading implications: Q4 beat on growth KPIs and buyback expansion are positive; near-term margin/fee rate normalization should be anticipated; catalysts include Qualitas close, fundraising updates, and clarity on 2025 catch-up levels .